The customer base was shrinking, revenues were falling. Sales reps feared their product was losing relevance in the marketplace. Company executives reassured them it wasn’t true, market research indicated product usage was steady, even increasing in some areas!

But the research was wrong. The decline was real, and permanent. Why such a huge disconnect between the market research results and reality?

They surveyed consumers with publicly listed landlines,  at home during weekdays, with the time and willingness to take a long survey. This method had been used for decades, and could be reliably extrapolated over the general population. But the world had changed.  Those folks now skewed older, and were not a representative sample of the marketplace.

In the case above, the product was phone books. Older consumers were still using them at the same rate. But younger consumers weren’t – and were also less likely to have landlines, publicly list their phone numbers, spend weekdays at home, and agree to take a long survey. That’s why the surveys (which were otherwise conducted with scientifically accepted methodology) let the executives keep believing they didn’t have a problem. They told their sales reps to defend the product by explaining to prospects that their perception about product relevance was wrong – they had the surveys to prove it. That did not turn out well.

When the real world indicators don’t look anything like the marketing research, defending the research is usually NOT a winning strategy. Unearth the worrying trends and inconvenient truths about your products. Then develop a roadmap to deal with them.

I fly US Airways a lot. Not road-warrior status, but several thousand miles per month.

In the many years I’ve flown US Airways, my assigned boarding zone has varied. You know, sometimes you win (Zone 1 or 2), sometimes you lose (Zone 4 or 5). But something’s changed – in the last few months, I’ve been consistently assigned Zone 4 or 5 for boarding. Understand, it’s not just drawing the short straw occasionally – it’s become a running joke among my travel colleagues – “Bye Cathy, see you in [insert city here]”.

Lately I’ve eschewed wheeled luggage for soft duffel bags that fit under the seat. As any traveler knows, Zone 4 or 5 equals no overhead bin space. As in, “sorry, we’re gonna have to go ahead and gate-check that bag for ya, ma’am.”

I am loyal to the airline. I’m frequently assigned TSA Pre-Check status. My ticket fares are almost never in the aggregator bargain-basement tier. They have every reason to like me. So why is this happening?

I have a theory – I’ve never signed up for their credit card.

I suspect my consumer and behavioral profile fits US Airways’ propensity model of customers who should. One of the perks of a US Airways credit card holders is – wait for it – Zone 2 boarding for all flights. My hypothesis is that the inconvenient boarding zone assignments are being used as a prod. They’re to nudge me into signing up for their credit card so I can start carrying a wheeled bag again. Too Machiavellian, you say? Perhaps. But that’s my theory.

I’m so onto you, US Airways. You are the masters of segmentation. But I don’t care how many times you assign me to Boarding Zone Siberia. You can’t make me get your credit card. I can hold out. Two words. Travel knits.

Update 4/18/14: The siege is over – got Zone 2!!

Update 6/18/14: No, it’s not over – oh, alright, I’m getting the damn card. You win.